Projecting the 2025 NFL draft order: Favorites for the No. 1 overall pick, plus who cracks the top 10?

There are seven weeks until NFL training camp, more than three months until the 2024 regular season and nearly a year until the 2025 NFL draft. We know what you're thinking: Is it too early to think about the 2025 draft? The answer is no. Let's take a first look at the projected first-round draft order for 32 teams with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations. After you check out the the full 1-32 projection for the 2025 NFL draft below, take a glance at more FPI takeaways for the upcoming season. 1. New England Patriots Average draft position: 5.1 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 21.9% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 66.3% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 87.4% 2. Carolina Panthers Average draft position: 5.7 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.8% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.9% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84.7% 3. Denver Broncos Average draft position: 7.0 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.4% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 50.9% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.1% 4. Tennessee Titans Average draft position: 9.1 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.1% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 36.7% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 65.1% 5. Washington Commanders Average draft position: 9.8 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.3% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.8% 6. New York Giants Average draft position: 9.8 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.8% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.4% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.9% 7. Minnesota Vikings Average draft position: 10.7 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.7% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 54.8% 8. Las Vegas Raiders Average draft position: 11.2 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.56% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.3% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.1% 9. Arizona Cardinals Average draft position: 11.6 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.4% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 50.5% 10. New Orleans Saints Average draft position: 13.1 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.4% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 43.6% 11. Seattle Seahawks Average draft position: 14.1 FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.9% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.1% 12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Average draft position: 14.4 FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 14% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6% 13. Pittsburgh Steelers Average draft position: 14.9 FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11.3% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.9% 14. Indianapolis Colts Average draft position: 15.0 FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.3% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.2% 15. Jacksonville Jaguars Average draft position: 15.8 FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.5% 16. Cleveland Browns Average draft position: 15.9 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26% 17. Chicago Bears Average draft position: 16.2 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.4% 18. Los Angeles Chargers Average draft position: 16.8 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.9% 19. Los Angeles Rams Average draft position: 17.9 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.2% 20. New York Jets Average draft position: 18.5 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6% 21. Miami Dolphins Average draft position: 20.2 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.2% 22. Atlanta Falcons Average draft position: 20.2 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.8% 23. Houston Texans Average draft position: 21.3 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10% 24. Green Bay Packers Average draft position: 21.4 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.6% 25. Cincinnati Bengals Average draft position: 22.5 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.6% 26. Buffalo Bills Average draft position: 22.5 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.9% 27. Dallas Cowboys Average draft position: 23.6 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9% 28. Philadelphia Eagles Average draft position: 23.6 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9% 29. Baltimore Ravens Average draft position: 24.3 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.1% 30. Detroit Lions Average draft position: 24.4 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.5% 31. Kansas City Chiefs Average draft position: 25.7 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3% 32. San Francisco 49ers Average draft position: 25.8 FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.1%