Who's ready for Thanksgiving Day football? Picks, predictions and X factors

The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered for what should be an exciting holiday. According to ESPN Research, the average over/under point total of 51.2 is the highest for Thanksgiving games over the past 40 seasons. Buckle up.

Ahead of the matchups, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside each locker room with key storylines and a look back at each team's history playing on Thanksgiving. ESPN Research provides optimistic stats for all six teams, along with betting nuggets to know. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes bold predictions, while fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts -- Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder -- give us final score picks for the three games.

Let's keep rolling with Bengals-Ravens on deck at 8:20 p.m. ET.



8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Bengals: Turnover margin is critical to the team's success in AFC North play. Dating back to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins compared to minus-13 in losses. The same principle holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. But it will be especially important in stopping Baltimore. "Whoever takes the ball away is going to win," safety Geno Stone said. -- Ben Baby

What we're hearing on the Ravens: Running back Derrick Henry needs 18 rushing yards to pass Jim Brown for 11th place on the NFL all-time rushing list. He is going against a Bengals defense that is allowing 156 yards rushing per game, which is the second worst in the league. "How many game balls can you give Derrick?," coach John Harbaugh said. "Maybe we'll wait until he cracks the top 10, I don't know. But he's going to get more yards." In his past five games against Cincinnati, Henry averaged 86.4 rushing yards per game and scored four touchdowns. -- Jamison Hensley

Stat the Bengals are thankful for: Running back Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight game with over 100 scrimmage yards against the Patriots last week. That's currently the longest active streak in the NFL and a welcome sign after he failed to cross that mark in the first six games of the season.

Stat the Ravens are thankful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson is 1-2 in prime-time games this season (won in Week 9 at the Dolphins), but he has a 21-7 record in such games for his career. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the only quarterback with a better record in prime time is Hall of Famer Steve Young (minimum of 15 starts). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will record at least 50 receiving yards for just the second time this season. Twenty-seven percent of targets against the Bengals' defense have gone to opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league. -- Walder

Injuries: Bengals | Ravens