What the death of Hezbollah’s leader means for the Middle East

Israel successfully killed Hezbollah’s longtime leader with an airstrike in Beirut last week, part of a flurry of attacks in its ongoing offensive against Lebanon that has since escalated to an invasion. Hassan Nasrallah, 64, had led the militant organization for over three decades and oversaw its transformation from militia group to powerful political organization in Lebanon. His death, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Jared Malsin, leaves the group with a significant leadership void. Nasrallah was key to Hezbollah’s rise as the world’s most powerful nonstate armed force, a role it pursued with the backing of Iran. The group, which has been designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US, used suicide bombings, kidnappings, and missile strikes to challenge American and Israeli influence in the region, in addition to its political heft. Nasrallah was known for his charisma and fierce determination, and his speeches were followed closely throughout the Arab world, not just in Lebanon. He was equally admired and detested in the region for Hezbollah’s role in standing up against — and at times becoming — an invading force. Malsin, Middle East correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, talked with Today, Explained host Sean Rameswaram about Nasrallah’s rise to power and what his death means for the future of Hezbollah. Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher. Jared Malsin Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, was one of the most important figures in the Middle East. He became the leader of Hezbollah in 1992 and since then has led this transformation of Hezbollah from a militia group into a powerful political organization that has elected MPs to the Lebanese Parliament, that has members of the cabinet, and is also the most important arm of Iranian influence in the region. On the one side, he was a charismatic leader who was seen as one of the few leaders in the Middle East who stood up to Israel militarily. On the other side, he was labeled a terrorist by the United States and Israel. So there’s going to be a lot of people celebrating his death and a lot of people mourning him. Sean Rameswaram Can you tell us how he got to be that towering figure? Where does his story begin? Jared Malsin His story begins in the early 1980s with the formation of Hezbollah. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. At that time, this was a small group that was operating in cells and didn’t even announce its presence publicly for a few years. In 1978 and ’79, you have the Iranian Revolution where there was an uprising against the Shah of Iran that was just an earthquake that shook the region. Nasrallah studied in Iran, rubbed shoulders with a lot of people who were involved in that movement, and there was kind of this awakening of ordinary people protesting in Iran could overthrow the Shah of Iran. It was this idea of “We can do anything.” And he returned to Lebanon where he went into this guerrilla movement. The other thing to explain why Nasrallah was so important is that he was a charismatic public speaker. Every time he went on TV, it was an event. I have seen this over the course of more than a decade of reporting in the Middle East — when he would get on TV here in Lebanon, Palestinians, people in Egypt and Jordan, listened to what he said. He would give these speeches where everyone is hanging on his every word. He liked to crack jokes — [for instance] during the Bush administration, he’s talking about John Bolton, and he says, “This is the American ambassador, Bolton, or whatever his name is … He’s a very funny-looking guy with his mustache …” and so on. And then there’s uproarious laughter. In addition to being the leader of the world’s most heavily armed militia and one of the most powerful political parties in Lebanon, [Nasrallah] also had this ability to directly connect with the public that broadened his appeal. Sean Rameswaram Can you tell us about some of his biggest wins in his time in power? Jared Malsin There’s one main win and it’s the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, which was the culmination of this 18 years of insurgency that Hezbollah had been fighting against the Israelis. They launched these attacks on Israeli forces, there was an insurgency, and then the Israelis withdrew without a peace treaty. And no one else in the region was able to do that. Israel has a qualitative military edge over every other country around it. They have nuclear weapons, they have fighter jets. And here is a group of guerrillas who, with the help of Iran but fighting with small arms and so on, was able to achieve that. And that inspired a lot of people. The other one is 2006 when Hezbollah captured some Israeli soldiers in a raid across the border and took them back into Lebanon. It bordered on military disaster for the Israelis because they went into Lebanon. Israeli military officials will tell you that they were unprepared at that time for what they found, which is that you had a group fighting for their own country. They know the terrain. They had anti-tank missiles and were able to pierce the armor of more than 20 tanks. Sean Rameswaram That might be why Nasrallah will be missed in the coming months, years. But you also alluded to people celebrating his death. Why will people be celebrating, including not just Israelis, but Arabs in the region and around the world? Jared Malsin Right, this is really important. You saw over the weekend, for example, people celebrating in rebel-held Syria. Nasrallah decided to send his troops into Syria to fight [alongside] the regime because they made a decision to side with these states that are backing [them] even if it meant siding with a brutal regime that was repressing its own people. It was a turning point, where instead of fighting as a guerrilla force against an invading army, they were acting as an invading army, fighting against the Syrian rebels. That’s why across the region it’s incredibly polarized. There’s going to be a lot of people celebrating his death and saying good riddance. Even here in Lebanon, for example, there are people who absolutely loved him. There are people who absolutely hated him. And I think there are a lot of people who feel genuinely mixed about it. Sean Rameswaram Is there another Nasrallah waiting in the wings? Do we know what comes next for Hezbollah? Jared Malsin We don’t know yet. They have not named a successor yet, but there have been a whole series of senior Hezbollah leaders who have been killed in the last few months. So we’re talking about close to a generation of senior leaders, founding members of the group that have already been killed. Sean Rameswaram You know, we had a guest on the show last week [Nick Paton Walsh], who said it’s important to remember that “destroying their adversary’s capabilities in the immediate future doesn’t leave you safe in the longer term, because dead men have sons who come back more angry.” Jared Malsin There’s no wiping out Hezbollah. We’ve seen this with the war in Gaza, with Hamas, which is a much smaller, much less well-armed, less well-trained group. It has been able to outlast a massive Israeli military operation in a tiny place, the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah is a larger group that is much more heavily armed, has many more advantages in terms of geography, in terms of its ability to re-arm itself, and that has a history of regenerating over the years. So over the long term, Hezbollah isn’t going to go anywhere, even if it is significantly weakened.