Tucker Carlson and Trump are falling out over the Iran war

Tucker Carlson has been one of the right’s loudest voices urging the United States to stay out of Israel’s war with Iran — part of a broader effort to overturn the GOP’s hawkish consensus. But now, as tensions rise amid Israeli strikes, Carlson has had a setback to his project: a derogatory nickname from President Donald Trump. “Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that, ‘IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!’” Trump posted on TruthSocial on Monday night. This is more important than just a nickname; there are real stakes here. Trump’s lashing out is a sign that, on this pivotal issue of potential war with Iran, he’s turned against Carlson — a longtime close ally. On Monday, I published a lengthy feature about the rise of an America First faction — including Carlson, Vice President JD Vance, and Donald Trump Jr. — that sought to overturn the Republican Party’s foreign policy establishment. Famously, they want the US to stop supporting Ukraine against Russia. But they’re also deeply suspicious of the US becoming embroiled in “forever wars” in the Middle East. For the few months of this administration, they appeared to have gained remarkable sway. The America Firsters were deeply influential in staffing the new administration. And when it came to Iran, Trump seemed to be following their counsel. For the first time, he pursued talks with Iran over its nuclear program, instead of the “maximum pressure” sanctions approach of his first term. Yet the hawks — strongly supportive of Israel, very hostile to Iran, and very skeptical any nuclear deal could be reached — remain very strong in the GOP. Every Republican senator except one (Rand Paul of Kentucky) signed a letter demanding Iran not be permitted any nuclear enrichment. Their belief is that Iran can never be “allowed” to go nuclear — that the US must stop it, by force if necessary. When I interviewed Carlson earlier this month (before the Israeli strikes), he disputed this logic. He argued that since Pakistan already had nuclear weapons, “It’s not without precedent that another Islamic nation gets the bomb.” And he argued that a war to try and stop Iran from getting nukes would be “a true disaster” and “would not stay in Iran, of course.” Right now, the hawks are urging Trump to enter the war against Iran more directly, arguing that the US has the responsibility, the capability, and the opportunity to end Iran’s nuclear program for the foreseeable future and perhaps even to topple its regime. The America Firsters are urging restraint, worrying that US entry to the war could unleash far worse consequences. But Carlson suggested Trump had already done too much to support Israel’s strikes. “While the American military may not have physically perpetrated the assault, years of funding and sending weapons to Israel, which Donald Trump just bragged about on Truth Social, undeniably place the U.S. at the center of last night’s events,” he wrote in a newsletter Friday. “Washington knew these attacks would happen,” Carlson added. “They aided Israel in carrying them out. Politicians purporting to be America First can’t now credibly turn around and say they had nothing to do with it.” Yet what’s become clear is that, unlike many of the America Firsters, Trump doesn’t truly want to withdraw from the world or stay out of foreign entanglements. He wants to accomplish and achieve big things on the global stage. He has declared that his goal is to force Iran to completely give up its nuclear ambitions. “Remember, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said Monday. “They just can’t have a nuclear weapon.” The shifting currents could be seen in a long X post by Vance. Vance is a close Carlson ally, who (per the New York Times) worried internally that an Israeli strike could lead to a drawn-out war or spiral out of control. But, per his position and his political future, he’s also obligated to defend the president. So, pushing back Tuesday against what he called “crazy stuff on social media” — the MAGA influencers and America First supporters dismayed or outraged over Trump being drawn into war — Vance blamed Iran for the collapse of negotiations and praised Trump for being “amazingly consistent” and displaying “remarkable restraint.” “He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment. That decision ultimately belongs to the president,” Vance added. “Of course, people are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy. But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue.” Yet, with each new Truth Social post, the US risked getting drawn deeper into the conflict. By midday Tuesday, Trump was claiming that “we” had gained “complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” and warning Iranian leaders that “our patience is wearing thin.” Carlson’s warnings had been ignored — and the future of the America First faction was in serious doubt.