Do Not Draft list: McCaffrey, Andrews among players being overvalued

Everyone knows what talented San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey can achieve statistically when he is fully healthy. McCaffrey dominated fantasy football during the 2019 season, and he did it again in 2023 in his first full campaign with the 49ers, topping 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns, moving fantasy managers to ignore the all-or-nothing nature of relying on him. Few bothered to even debate other options with the top pick in 2024 drafts. It was obvious.

It is hardly so obvious what to do with McCaffrey now. Overeager fantasy managers can convince themselves of virtually anything, and many view McCaffrey as one of the top PPR picks again, resulting in a first-round ADP. Why can't he soar past 300 PPR points again? Well, with good luck in the health department, perhaps McCaffrey will, but after a nightmare season in which fantasy's top pick (and perhaps the 49ers) misled everyone about his mysterious lower leg malady and then we watched him debut in Week 10 and sputter through four disappointing on-field weeks, he is far from trustworthy.

Welcome to another season of the often misunderstood Do Not Draft list, where the intent is to discuss the players whose inherent draft day value might not match up with how some of us view the players statistically. That's really all this is. Is there a right draft spot or salary cap figure in which to secure McCaffrey and all his wild upside to your teams? Of course there is, but for me it sure is not in the top 10 of drafts when there are so many safe, reliable wide receivers and even a few running backs I prefer. Risk versus reward is a real thing in fantasy football, but Round 1 sure is a dangerous place to act on it.

This wasn't the first time McCaffrey, now 29 years old, demoralized so many fantasy managers, and perhaps even his own franchise. The star of 2019 was the bust of the 2020 season. He played in only 10 games over two seasons, before the Carolina Panthers traded him to the 49ers midway through 2022. McCaffrey looked rejuvenated and trustworthy. He did not look rejuvenated or trustworthy in 2024. Guessing how he will perform -- and how often -- is a big part of the problem. We don't have to guess with most other players in the first two rounds. Why take that chance here?

Odds are I will fade each of the top-scoring PPR running backs from the past two seasons, though their situations are different. Philadelphia Eagles star Saquon Barkley is sure to take a statistical step back overall, though he should remain productive. Just not as productive as last season because, c'mon, he can't do all that again. Be realistic, people. There is no way Barkley is handling 378 touches again (a staggering 482 when including the postseason) this season, or perhaps ever. It's also worth noting he has missed at least three games in four of his past six seasons, so anticipating missed time should be part of the calculus for fantasy managers. The Eagles are analytically inclined. They know how injuries can derail a season, and really, this franchise is playing for January, anyway.

I will not pick Barkley early in the first round because I am loading up on the safe wide receivers there. Still, as with McCaffrey, we have seen what is possible, and it is awesome. There is ample historical evidence here that hefty workload results in injury and/or major decline in performance the next season, and both McCaffrey and Barkley have a history of missing games. In fact, it feels relevant to point out these fellows have combined for only six career top-5 finishes in PPR fantasy scoring. Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry has done this five of the past six seasons, though he is going later in drafts.

Back to Barkley: Since 2000, there have been 12 instances of a running back logging 400 carries in a season (including playoffs), and none of them finished the next season as a top-10 RB. Not one was close. Eight players rushed for 2,000 yards in a season before Barkley. None of them even reached 1,500 yards the next season. The Super Bowl champions have options, including a QB who scores nearly all the goal-line touchdowns. Barkley is safer than McCaffrey, more likely to provide top-5 RB numbers with something like 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns over 14 games. McCaffrey is the greater risk. How much risk are you cool with?

Here are other players I keep ignoring in myriad -- and I mean myriad -- mock drafts and real leagues this summer. The Do Not Draft list is about fading players at their current popularity, or ADP. Unless some unfavorable health news is released, McCaffrey isn't falling in drafts anytime soon. That might be the case with most of the players on this list. Study ADP, not only at ESPN but in other places, and make your own decisions on whom to roster and whom to let someone else worry about.

As you prepare your draft board, think about the right price for each player (I recommend ranking players in tiers). If you can't get a player at your preferred price, remember that you don't have to draft him.