Trump’s Hormuz problem, briefly explained

This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here. Welcome to The Logoff: Donald Trump is looking for help with the war he started. What’s happening? Over the weekend, Trump said in a post that “many” countries “will be sending War Ships” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial sea passage bordered by Iran. In his post, Trump name-checked “China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others” as potential participants in an effort to reopen the Strait; he said on Monday that “I have to tell you, we have some [countries] that are really enthusiastic. They’re coming already.” But so far, it doesn’t seem like Trump has many takers; several NATO countries, including Germany, Italy, and Spain, have already rebuffed him, as have other nations. Why is Trump so focused on the Strait? About one-fifth of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed since earlier this month following US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The closure is translating into a serious economic and political problem for Trump: Average gas prices in the US are up nearly 80 cents compared to a month ago, at almost $3.72/gallon. As historian Gregory Brew told my colleague Eric Levitz last week, the Hormuz closure represents “the largest supply shock in history.” Even if the Strait is reopened in the near future, Brew said, prices could remain high into 2027. What’s the big picture? Trump came into the Iran conflict on something of a hot streak. In January, a high-risk US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro succeeded with no US deaths. US strikes on two Iranian nuclear facilities last June also went off without a hitch and with relatively minimal Iranian retaliation. Now, despite the US’s military successes in Iran, things aren’t going so smoothly. Trump doesn’t have a straightforward option to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the response from US allies so far suggests that help isn’t on the way. And with that, it’s time to log off… Trump posting to Truth Social wasn’t the only thing that happened over the weekend; it was also the Oscars! I enjoyed this piece from my colleague Alex Abad-Santos about the movie Sinners and why, ultimately, it didn’t need a Best Picture win to cap its historic run. Have a great evening, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow!