What to know for NFL Week 9: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game

The Week 9 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. NFL analyst Matt Bowen picks out each matchup's biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, analytics writer Seth Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let's get into the full Week 9 slate, including the Dolphins and Chiefs squaring off in Germany, the Cowboys visiting the 7-1 Eagles and a Josh Allen-Joe Burrow showdown. It all culminates with a "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the New York Jets on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)



Jump to a matchup:
MIA-KC | MIN-ATL | ARI-CLE
LAR-GB | WSH-NE | CHI-NO
SEA-BAL | TB-HOU | IND-CAR
NYG-LV | DAL-PHI | BUF-CIN | LAC-NYJ

Thursday: PIT 20, TEN 16
Bye: DEN, DET, SF, JAX





9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: KC -1.5 (50.5)

Storyline to watch: The Chiefs get their first chance to see what it's like to defend their former receiver Tyreek Hill. The decisions they make in how to cover Miami's biggest threat and how successful those are could well determine the outcome. The Chiefs have at times used L'Jarius Sneed to shadow other top receivers this season, but Hill is in a category of his own -- he is leading the league with 1,014 receiving yards, eight touchdowns and 382 yards after the catch (YAC). -- Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: The Dolphins will force quarterback Patrick Mahomes to do something he has done only twice in his career -- throw multiple interceptions in consecutive games. Mahomes has thrown eight interceptions this season. After going three straight weeks without forcing a turnover, Miami's defense has takeaways in back-to-back games. With the Jalen Ramsey-Xavien Howard defensive back tandem active Sunday, the Dolphins will keep that streak alive against the Chiefs. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has 17 straight games with a passing touchdown, the longest active streak in the NFL and the fourth longest in Dolphins history (Dan Marino has the three of their longest streaks, with a high of 30 straight).

Matchup X factor: Chiefs DT Chris Jones. There's a matchup advantage here for Jones rushing from edge alignments against Dolphins right tackle Austin Jackson. Jones has a pass rush win rate of 26.2% when rushing off the edge this season. -- Bowen

Injuries: Dolphins | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: Rashee Rice led all Chiefs wide receivers in snaps played last week against the Broncos. Over the past four games, he has averaged 5.0 targets and 12.7 fantasy points. The Chiefs' offense is expected to rebound in a shootout against the Dolphins, and Rice could play a key role with a favorable matchup against Dolphins slot cornerback Kader Kohou. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) as favorites and 1-2 ATS as underdogs this season. Read more.

Moody's pick: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 24
Walder's pick: Dolphins 28, Chiefs 24
FPI prediction: K.C., 50.8% (by an average of 0.3 points)



Matchup must-reads: Hill says Chiefs 'going to get this work' ... Chiefs sticking with their wide receivers ... Holland clears protocol, rejoins Dolphins' secondary



1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -4.5 (37.5)

Storyline to watch: If you like unknowns, this game is for you. Both Atlanta and Minnesota are starting new quarterbacks -- Taylor Heinicke in place of Desmond Ridder (benched) and Jaren Hall in for Kirk Cousins (torn Achilles). Both played last week, but how they handle a full week of prep as the starters no one will truly know until Sunday. Heinicke has 25 career starts, mostly with Washington, under his belt, while Hall is a rookie out of BYU making his first career start. It'll be the third rookie quarterback Atlanta will face in their first-ever start this season (the others are Carolina's Bryce Young in Week 1 and Tennessee's Will Levis last week). -- Michael Rothstein

Bold prediction: The over/under on this game is 37.5, but the teams will combine for fewer than 30 points. The Vikings' defense is on a roll, having limited opponents to 13.3 points per game over the past three weeks, while the Falcons felt compelled this week to elevate their backup quarterback (Heinicke) to revive their offense. The Vikings will start Hall, who won't have Justin Jefferson (hamstring) to throw to and might not be able to count on a running game that is averaging 73.3 yards per game, the second-lowest in the NFL. -- Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Both teams enter with a 4-4 record. Eight of the 13 teams that started 5-4 in the past two seasons made the playoffs. Two of the eight teams that started 4-5 in the past two seasons made the playoffs.

Matchup X factor: Falcons S Jessie Bates III. The Falcons will use late movement and disguise from two-high shells, with Bates spinning down to jump in-breakers against Hall. -- Bowen

Injuries: Vikings | Falcons

What to know for fantasy: While the Vikings might want to run the ball more with rookie Hall under center, they will face a Falcons defense that ranks eighth in run stop win rate. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games. Read more.

Moody's pick: Falcons 24, Vikings 14
Walder's pick: Vikings 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: MIN, 50.8% (by an average of 0.3 points)



Matchup must-reads: As Hall preps to start, Vikings open to Cousins' return in 2024 ... Why the Falcons made the change at starting quarterback ... Cousins undergoes surgery on torn Achilles ... Falcons elevate Heinicke to starting QB against Vikings