Trump’s new tax, briefly explained

This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here. Welcome to The Logoff: It’s tariffs day, for real this time. President Donald Trump’s latest wave of tariffs, which will almost certainly raise prices for Americans, officially went into effect overnight. Who is Trump tariffing? Roughly half the world, or more than 90 countries. Some, like South Korea, struck trade deals with the administration and face a tariff rate of 15 percent (give or take depending on the country), while others, like Brazil, face rates of up to 50 percent. Overall, the average tariff rate on imported goods now stands at 18.6 percent — the highest in nearly a century, and far higher than the modern average of just 2 to 3 percent. What does that mean for me? For Americans, Trump’s tariffs are essentially a significant backdoor tax increase. The government is collecting revenue from the tariffs, but companies are passing those costs on to consumers. Some prices have already been creeping up in response to Trump’s earlier tariffs, and that will only continue now that broader tariffs are in place. What does this mean for the US economy? Nothing good. Even before today, the economy was in rough shape, largely propped up by the AI industry and hiring in the health care sector, while drifting toward stagflation. After today, things aren’t likely to get much better. Why is Trump doing this? Trump’s understanding of trade and economics is fundamentally nonsense, as my colleague Eric Levitz has explained. That said, it seems like he might have something approaching a strategy: threaten catastrophic tariffs to bring countries to the table, and then settle on a 15 percent tariff and commitments to buy US goods or some other deal to give Trump the appearance of a win. Could this be reversed? It’s possible — though by no means certain — that Trump’s entire tariffs regime comes to a halt. A federal appeals court is currently considering their legality and, depending on how it rules, the Supreme Court could weigh in soon. And with that, it’s time to log off… Some exciting news from the world of baseball: Major League Baseball will have its first-ever female umpire this weekend, with Jen Pawol set to umpire a Miami Marlins-Atlanta Braves game on Saturday. It’s a major milestone for the league, coming 28 years after the first female referee in the NBA and a decade after the first female official in the NFL. And with that, have a lovely weekend — the newsletter will be off tomorrow, but I’ll see you back here on Monday.