Your guide to the men's Final Four: Auburn-Florida, Duke-Houston (with picks!)

A showdown of the top two teams from the best conference in men's college basketball. And a battle between the country's best defense and a historically efficient offense.

There's a reason it's all chalk on the San Antonio River Walk for the March Madness finale -- and our experts are here to break down how each team can win its Final Four matchup.

Read their analysis for Florida vs. Auburn and Duke vs. Houston, including fatal flaws and players each semifinalist will need to step up in the final stages of the 2025 NCAA tournament.

For more on tonight's action, see our experts' picks for the final three games of the 2024-25 college basketball season.



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Auburn-Florida | Houston-Duke

Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET, CBS

How Florida reached the Final Four:

What we've learned about Florida in March: Florida's run over the second half tells the story of this team's season. Since Feb. 1, the Gators have lost only once: 88-83 at Georgia on Feb. 25. They have encountered more trouble than anticipated in recent weeks, but we've learned you can never assume they're out of a game before it's over.

Down late against back-to-back national champion UConn? They figured it out against the Huskies. Alex Condon sustaining an ankle injury against Maryland in the Sweet 16? They held on until the 6-foot-11 standout returned to close out the double-digit victory. And we all watched the furious comeback from a 10-point deficit in the final minutes against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. The Gators have five wins against top-20 KenPom teams by 14 or more points in March and refuse to quit against extreme adversity. What we've learned about them in March? They're incredibly difficult to beat.

The player who needs to step up: Alex Condon.

After his shaky defensive effort against Texas Tech star Darrion Williams, Condon has to be a better defensive player in space against Auburn. The Tigers are stacked with versatile talents at 6-7 or taller who are comfortable on the perimeter and in the post. Like Texas Tech, they will try to draw Condon outside then attempt to attack him off the dribble to get to the rim and score. Williams was excellent whenever Condon ended up in those scenarios, and Florida has a fleet of offensive options. The Gators don't need every player on their roster to score 15 points, but they will need 6-11 Condon to play excellent defense to advance to the title game.

Potential fatal flaw: A strength could also be Florida's potential flaw: its comfort level in adversity.

The Gators often execute when down -- they overcame a four-minute scoring drought in the second half of their second-round win over UConn and a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight -- but those scenarios are dicier in the Final Four. They know they can catch any opponent, which is riskier at this stage than in December against North Carolina (allowed the Tar Heels to take the lead after being up 17 points) or in January against South Carolina (overcame a 14-point second-half deficit to win by one point).

Does Florida have an answer to Johni Broome? I don't think any team in America has an answer for Broome -- a top contender for every national player of the year award -- but Florida is equipped to be assertive against him, which is the best opponents can do against a player of his caliber. The Gators have multiple players they can send to aggressively defend 6-10 Broome without concern that one player's foul trouble will ruin their shot at victory: Condon (6-11), Thomas Haugh (6-9), Rueben Chinyelu (6-10) and Micah Handlogten (7-1) are all options. Even if Auburn forces Florida to switch a lot of matchups and a Gators guard ends up on Broome, it won't be a terrible mismatch.

Florida will win if: The Gators play the way they have for the past month.

They have made 58% of their shots inside the arc and 38% of their 3-point attempts since March. They have also had the best offense in America over that stretch. They know how to pummel opponents and can do it from every spot on the floor. And they have a unique combination of experience and talent.

Walter Clayton Jr. is an AP first-team All-American. Alijah Martin is participating in his second Final Four in three years. Will Richard is one of six upperclassmen on the team. Plus, they have length that few teams can match and are 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency. -- Myron Medcalf

How Auburn reached the Final Four:

What we've learned about Auburn in March: A 1-3 stretch entering the NCAA tournament called Auburn's ceiling into question, but those three losses came against Tennessee, Alabama and Texas A&M -- and we have since learned that this is still the same team that lost one game between Dec. 4 and March 4 behind the leadership of Johni Broome.

Yes, Alabama State had a brief lead over the Tigers in the first round, but the Tigers ultimately won by 20. They went on to beat a good Creighton team by 12 in the second round and hold Michigan standout Danny Wolf scoreless for the final 13 minutes of their Sweet 16 win. Then they overcame Broome's midgame injury to hand Michigan State its first NCAA tournament loss to an SEC team under Tom Izzo.

The player who needs to step up: Chad Baker-Mazara.

The 6-7 standout has battled through hip and shoulder injuries in recent weeks, but the Tigers will need the best version of the All-SEC third-team selection to produce in the final stage of the season. He's an essential player on both ends of the floor for the Tigers, who have won with star power (see: Broome) and depth. Baker-Mazara has registered double figures just once since March 4 and doesn't look like he's 100%, but Auburn will need everything he can give to avenge the February loss to one of the hottest teams in the country.

Potential fatal flaw: Shots from 3 have not been falling.

The Tigers have one of America's best players in Broome to go with standouts such as Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones. They are talented at every position on the floor, which has been sufficient all season, but they have gone cold from beyond the arc. They have made just 31% of their 3-point attempts in four NCAA tournament games, which hasn't cost them thus far, but now they will face a Florida team that went 13-for-33 (39.4%) from 3 against them in February, when the Tigers were just 7-for-22 (31.8%). Another cold night could lead to Auburn's elimination.

How can Auburn limit Florida from going on runs? Florida's first-round game against Norfolk State showcased the extremes of its offense, America's best since March 1, which scored 53 points in the final 16:45 of regulation. (Had that been a 48-minute NBA game, Florida would have been on pace to score 151 points.) Auburn witnessed that burst potential firsthand in its 90-81 loss to Florida in February -- the Tigers had a nine-point lead in the first half before the Gators ended it on a 37-18 run in the final 12 minutes to carry a 10-point lead into the locker room. Auburn must first focus on Walter Clayton Jr., often the catalyst of those runs, and not allow him to hit the big shots that shift the momentum. The Tigers also can't be afraid to slow the game down or call an early timeout to limit the Gators' opportunities to get their offense rolling.

Auburn will win if: The Tigers limit Clayton's impact on the outcome.

Auburn has multiple defenders it can use to corral the Florida star -- and will need all of them Saturday. The NCAA tournament has been a showcase for the All-America guard, but the Gators are a significantly different team when he has a tough night. If the Tigers can make it difficult for him, they will have a chance against a team that scored 90 points against them in February.

Coach Bruce Pearl needs a game plan that doesn't allow Clayton to do whatever he wants on the court. -- Myron Medcalf



Jeff Borzello: Florida wins, 82-79
Myron Medcalf: Florida wins, 88-84
Joe Lunardi: Florida wins, 85-80
Neil Paine: Auburn wins, 80-78

Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET, CBS

How Duke reached the Final Four:

What we've learned about Duke in March: There wasn't much we didn't know about Duke going into the NCAA tournament, but the Blue Devils have lived up to every expectation we had of them on Selection Sunday.

If you were concerned they inflated their numbers due to mediocre ACC competition, they have answered every question. They put forth staggeringly efficient offensive performances in the second round against Baylor and in the Sweet 16 against Arizona, then held Alabama -- the nation's No. 1 scoring offense -- to 65 points and below 0.90 points per possession in the Elite Eight. That was only the second time in two seasons the Crimson Tide failed to reach that per-possession threshold.

One thing we did learn was that the moment hasn't been too big for Kon Knueppel, who averaged 20.5 points and 4.0 assists with terrific performances in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.

The player who needs to step up: Tyrese Proctor.

It needs to be a big night for Proctor. One would surmise Houston's defense will focus on limiting Cooper Flagg and Knueppel, which could give Proctor some shotmaking opportunities. He has been in terrific form over the past few weeks, making 20 3s in a three-game stretch against Louisville, Mount St. Mary's and Baylor. Then after an off night against Arizona, he went for 17 points on 10 shots against Alabama. He shoots better than 41% from 3-point range and has been playing with confidence. His perimeter shooting could be needed to loosen up the Houston defense.

Potential fatal flaw: Relative youth.

From a personnel perspective, there's not much. Duke has size, shooting, ball handlers, shot creators and shotmakers. From a balance perspective, there's still not much. The Blue Devils are elite at both ends of the floor, possessing the most efficient offense in the history of the KenPom database and a top-five defense to go with it.

If there's anything, it would be whether a team that starts three freshmen can win a national championship in such a transfer-heavy landscape, where teams are routinely averaging starting lineups with players who are 22 or 23 years old. The Blue Devils have seemed unfazed by anything thrown at them so far this season, though. Flagg and Knueppel play with such poise and confidence, and, as one ACC coach pointed out to me before the tournament, Khaman Maluach doesn't do much more than dunk, rebound and block shots (all at an elite level, of course) -- can a moment really be too big for him?

What will be key for Duke's offense if Houston can limit the Blue Devils' dribble penetration? Houston has the nation's best defense, and the Cougars excel at preventing opponents from attacking the rim off the bounce. Duke, meanwhile, has four players on the floor at all times who can put pressure on the defense, forcing them into rotations and to collapse in the paint -- before either finishing at the rim, kicking it out to a shooter or throwing a lob to Maluach.

Can the Blue Devils continue to do that against Houston's defense? It's a valid question.

One area where Houston's defense is potentially vulnerable, however, is behind the arc: The Cougars allow teams to shoot 3s, ranking 12th in the Big 12 in 3-point attempt rate defensively. And the Blue Devils are capable of taking advantage of that. They took nearly 45% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range in ACC play and made nearly 40% of those attempts.