Till a couple of decades ago, a familiar sight on the cramped streets of urban neighborhoods was a group of the elderly men of the neighborhood, huddled together to discuss the latest current affairs. Be it political intrigue, martial law or general elections, come sunshine or rain, these men would sit there, offering perhaps a better analysis of events than most high-paid pundits.

In rural areas, this activity is still flourishing. In cities, it has almost ended as televisions and smart phones have all but squashed the old tradition.

A few days ago, I happened upon such a gathering and sat down with the elderly men there. Fierce sunlight pierced my eyes, making me uncomfortable enough to not sit there for long but what I heard had me convinced on two aspects. One, political upheaval is not over. Two, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) isn’t unsuccessful, not yet. Let me explain why.

I heard arguments for the “One Plus” formula and also on the “Minus Three” formula. Sitting within sight of an over flowing garbage bin, I sipped tea as someone praised former Chief Minister Punjab, Shehbaz Sharif. This led to an old man recounting tales of the Sharif clan from their old neighborhood on Railway Road. So detailed were his accounts that I was tempted to interrupt to ask if he actually belonged to the family but left it to the others to tease him on that matter.

And from these men I heard three different analysis, the clarity of which astounded me. One, that if a new setup is to be established, Chaudharys of Gujrat will play an important role in it. Two, Maryam Nawaz’s increasingly powerful grip over Pakistan Muslim league-Nawaz (PML-N). Three, the probability of prolonging the tenure of the government in one way or another, to explore the possibility of launching a Presidential System. Unlike political experts who change predictions at the drop of a hat, these men had arrived at their predictions with unwavering certainty.

The Chaudharys, they said, had taken much advantage of the mere ten seats they won in 2018, but now they have been relegated to just a few constituencies. This bodes ill for the future of the party, a future the older generation of Pakistan Muslim league-Quaid (PML-Q) wants to secure for the younger one. A set up ordained by the powers that be could give them more responsibilities and more prominence. That would be a win-win situation for both. After all, of all the parties that pledge allegiance to certain quarters, PML-Q is the only one that performed and performed well.

So, if a formula is devised for a Presidential system, PML-Q will come out as its biggest supporter. They might even get the lion’s share in the set-up, should it ever be devised.

As for the PDM, these old men said that when a behemoth falls, it takes down everything in its surrounding too. An alliance of the biggest opposition parties in the country is too huge to fail on its own. Were it to collapse, it will cost the government something precious. Would that something precious be a seat, or a government? They disagreed on that. But they were unanimous in agreeing that the government had panicked at PDM’s birth and it remains worried even now.

There was also praise for Maryam Nawaz, and how she had revitalized her party, a silent spectator to the events unfolding since 2018. Perhaps her becoming politically active was a lucky omen for the PML-N whose workers now are energized, whether form Punjab, or Balochistan. Her campaigns in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and her speeches in Sindh were all well received. PML-N party members are now raring to go, waiting for Maryam Nawaz to give them the signal to launch what might be the most important political battle of their lifetimes.

I listened to it all, these forecasts and predictions. And I felt that the thread that wove through them all was not political inclination but the sad reality that these men were all swamped under the effects of rising inflation and prevailing joblessness. Behind their political disagreements was the fear of the immediate future.

They could not see it. They could not predict it.

The writer is a senior political reporter at GNN.