New cases of political violence roil US ahead of contentious election

Washington DC (Reuters): In York, Pennsylvania, a man accosted a group of people rallying for Vice President Kamala Harris’ White House campaign, punching a 74-year-old man in the head and calling another man a “n— supporter” as he fled.

In northern Michigan, an assailant enraged by his hatred of Donald Trump used an all-terrain vehicle to run over and injure an 81-year-old man who was putting up a yard sign for the former president’s reelection bid.

The recent attacks were among at least 300 cases of political violence identified by Reuters since Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, including at least 51 incidents this year. With just two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 presidential election, the cases are part of the biggest andmost sustained increase in U.S. political violence since the 1970s.

Some of the violence has been reported widely, most notably two assassination attempts on Trump, a Republican. Other high-profile incidents include three shootings in recent weeks at a Democratic campaign office for Harris in Arizona.

But Reuters documented scores of other cases on contentious political issues – from election disputes to LGBTQ+ rights and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Incidents ranged from small fights over political signs to more violent brawls and property destruction at rallies. Most of this year's violence wasn't fatal with the exception of two deaths: a spectator killed during July’s attempt on Trump’s life and the shooter.

The pace of cases has remained remarkably consistent since beginning to rise in 2016, around the time of Trump’s first presidential run. In 2021, which included the tumult that followed Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, there were 93 cases of political violence, followed by 79 in 2022, and 76 in 2023.

Political extremism experts warn that the charged atmosphere around the 2024 presidential election has created a highly volatile situation. Trump in particular often uses incendiary rhetoric, threatening to put his political enemies on trial and to deploy the military against the “radical left”, calling them “the enemy within.”

Americans are starting to see violence as “part of the way politics happens,” said Nealin Parker, who heads Common Ground USA, a nonprofit that studies ways to bridge America's political and cultural divides. In the current climate of mistrust, she added, “incidents of violence can metastasize into something bigger.”

Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor who studies political violence, expressed concern over the prospect of post-election violence in battleground states, where the margin of victory could be a few thousand votes. He likened it to “a wildfire season” with lots of “dry combustible material” and the “potential for lightning strikes.”

Trump himself has declined to rule out the possibility of violence if he loses in November. When asked by Time magazine in April if he expected violence after the election, he said, “If we don’t win, you know, it depends.” He has told supporters that any loss in this year’s race would be due to fraud.

The Harris campaign did not respond to a request for comment. The Trump campaign, when asked about the steady rise of political violence and the recent attacks against Harris and Trump supporters, provided a statement attacking Harris on immigration and criminal justice reform.