From Man City to Flamengo, why every last-16 team will, won't win Club World Cup

I'm not going to lie: I'm really enjoying the FIFA Club World Cup. And that's a strange thing to say considering virtually every negative thing anyone has said about the competition has been correct.

The venues have indeed been too big, making decent good crowds look paltry in cavernous environments, and one of the scourges of 21st century business, dynamic pricing, has backfired in plenty of instances.

The European teams can claim both fatigue and rust at the same time, having taken a few weeks off after a grueling campaign before facing teams in midseason form (and fitness) from other continents. Stars like Paris Saint-Germain's Ousmane Dembélé and Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappé haven't been involved. The heat and weather have been ridiculous, and the decision to have the most marketable European teams playing in the afternoon -- prime time in Europe -- in cities like Miami and Charlotte, is questionable at best.

(This says nothing of Juventus' White House visit, Antonio Rüdiger's claims of racist abuse and all the other undercurrents weighing down virtually every pastime or aspect of society at the moment.)

However, rust, weather, stadium size, world geopolitics ... none of that is the fault of the South American teams that have absolutely come to play over the last couple of weeks. Or the fan bases that have followed them around this sweltering country. Or the marquee names (Manchester City's Erling Haaland, Inter Miami's Lionel Messi, Bayern Munich's Michael Olise and Kingsley Coman, Juventus' Randal Kolo Muani), familiar old stars (Benfica's Ángel Di María and Nicolás Otamendi, River Plate's Marcos Acuña) or exciting lesser-knowns (Mamelodi Sundowns' Lucas Ribeiro Costa, Inter Miami's Oscar Ustari, Botafogo's Alexander Barboza) who have shone thus far.

We've seen PSG and Chelsea fall to South American counterparts (Botafogo and Flamengo). We've seen Inter Miami take down a team (Porto) that was in the UEFA Champions League knockout rounds last year. We've seen some electric environments for matches like Bayern Munich vs. Boca Juniors, and we saw nonsense of the best kind as eight goals were scored in the second half of Group A's final two matches (three in Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras, five in Al Ahly's 4-4 draw with Porto) and after both teetering on the brink of elimination, both Palmeiras and Inter Miami advanced.

And, we're only getting started. As of Thursday morning, 14 of 16 spots in the knockout rounds have been secured. So, as teams continue to qualify, let's take a look at each remaining contender and why they might or might not lift the strange, golden Club World Cup trophy in a few more weeks.

Editor's Note: This file will be updated on Friday with the latest odds as the final two groups (G and H) conclude and the remaining round-of-16 match-ups are confirmed.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +500 (equivalent to 16.7%) | Title odds, per Opta: 11.2%
How they got here: def. Auckland City (10-0), def. Boca Juniors (2-1), lost to Benfica (1-0)
Round-of-16 opponent: Flamengo (June 29, 4 p.m. ET, Miami)

Why they will win it all: They take all the shots. No matter the manager, no matter the season, Bayern suffocate overwhelmed opponents. In the Champions League last season, they were second in shots per possession and first in shots allowed per possession. In the Bundesliga, they were first in both categories. They tilt the pitch, they counter-press, and they keep the ball near your goal and far away from theirs.

Three matches in, they're doing the same thing in this competition: They're fourth in shots per possession and first in shots allowed. Granted, they've benefited from playing the weakest team in the competition (Auckland City, whom they outshot, 31-1). But in more cautious and physical matches against Boca Juniors and Benfica, they still attempted twice the shots and produced more than three times the xG. They completed 351 passes in the attacking third against Boca and Benfica while allowing just 48 such completions.

Manager Vincent Kompany attempted to rest key players in scorching heat against Benfica -- Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Joshua Kimmich and Jonathan Tah all played only the second half -- and it backfired when they fell behind early and Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin somehow made it hold up. But when the starters are on the pitch, Bayern is playing for keeps.

Why they won't: We don't know that their old defensive weaknesses are fixed yet. The high-risk ball domination that Bayern enjoy usually comes with occasional defensive breakdowns. In six draws and losses in last year's Champions League, they still dominated in shot quantity, but looking specifically at high-quality shots (worth 0.2 xG or more), they allowed as many as they attempted.

When Boca Juniors tied Bayern in the second half in Miami last Friday, it came on a counterattack that produced a particularly high-quality shot (0.53 xG). Granted, it was a brilliant individual effort from Miguel Merentiel, but it was the exact flavor of goal Bayern tend to allow.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +3300 | Title odds, per Opta: 4.7%
How they got here: drew with Boca Juniors (2-2), def. Auckland City (6-0), def. Bayern (1-0)
Round-of-16 opponent: Chelsea (June 28, 4 p.m. ET, Charlotte)

Why they will win it all: Angel Di Maria and Nicolas Otamendi have turned back the clock. Or I should say, they've continued to do so. The club's worldly 37-year-olds played all but 16 of Benfica's minutes in the group stage. Di Maria scored three goals (tied for most in the competition as of Tuesday afternoon) and ranks first on the team in chances created, expected assists from completed passes, shots on goal and even total touches. He's relentless. And did I mention he's 37?

Otamendi, meanwhile, stifled Bayern's Harry Kane for a half and has been one of the primary reasons Benfica enter the knockout stage having not allowed a goal for 243 minutes. He's first on the team in defensive interventions, he has won 81% of his duels, and, oh yeah -- he's also first on the team in progressive carries and progressive passes.

Goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin has been fantastic, too, and players like attacker Vangelis Pavlidis and defensive midfielder Leandro Barreiro have been strong. But two proud old veterans lead this proud old club into the knockouts.

Why they won't: Their record against good teams ... isn't good. In the last 12 months, Benfica have played 10 matches against teams in the top 20 of the Opta power rankings. They lost six, drew two and won only two -- and one of the two came on Tuesday against a Bayern team that tried to rest quite a few starters (and still generated far more opportunities) -- with two draws and six losses. They scored more than one goal just twice. This is a nearly upset-proof outfit, but they aren't going to be favored much, if at all, moving forward.