Dollar surges as forex markets struggle amid IMF delays, economic pressures

Karachi: The dollar continued its upward trajectory in both the interbank and open currency markets on Tuesday, driven by a combination of delayed disbursements from the IMF, a widening current account deficit, and declining foreign direct investment.

In the wake of delays in the staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the postponement of the next loan tranche, Pakistan's foreign exchange markets were under significant pressure. The country's current account deficit stood at $12 million in February, coupled with a sharp 45% drop in foreign direct investment, contributing to a further weakening of the rupee.

The open market saw the dollar's value surge beyond Rs282, continuing its recent flight. In contrast, the interbank market experienced a momentary dip in the dollar's value, reaching a low of Rs280.6, a reduction of 10 paisas. However, this downward movement was short-lived, as increased demand for imports and a slight improvement in the supply of dollars triggered a reversal.

By the close of the trading day, the dollar’s value had risen by 20 paisas in the interbank market, settling at 280 rupees and 26 paisas. The open market also reflected a similar uptick, with the dollar gaining 9 paisas to close at 282 rupees and 7 paisas.

A noteworthy development in the financial sector was a decrease in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) index by 1.8 points, bringing it down to 102.3 points. A REER index value above 100 is considered favorable for Pakistan’s economy and the rupee’s value, as it indicates a balance between dollar demand and supply, potentially stabilizing the exchange rate.