Fantasy football: What did we learn from 2023 that we can apply to 2024 drafts?

Perhaps we should have seen it coming when Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon tear an agonizing four snaps into the season. The much-publicized, future Hall of Fame quarterback projected to be the New York Jets' savior and a fringe QB1 in fantasy football ended up scoring nary a fantasy point for the season, and his injury became a painful harbinger of a season-long theme for fantasy football managers, especially in the AFC.

Rodgers' plight was the first of myriad serious injuries to notable and previously durable quarterbacks -- more than a few who were expected to contribute for fantasy managers in standard leagues -- and it wreaked modest havoc for those unprepared. Then again, who could properly prepare for such an onslaught of missed games? Many of us subscribed to the popular theory that even rostering a backup quarterback in a 10- or 12-team league was unnecessary until the bye weeks.

Then came the 2023 season, and one excellent, reliable quarterback after another left the fantasy world prematurely.

As we look back at what we learned from another remarkably unpredictable fantasy football season, one in which journeyman Joshua Dobbs surpassed 200 fantasy points between two teams, and seemingly retired Joe Flacco topped 100 points in only five games, outscoring the likes of Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones and (of course) Rodgers, we must look forward and ask if draft day and/or team construction strategy alters for future seasons based on the historic results of this just-completed season.

Sure, football players get hurt. It is part of the violent game. Still, how could fantasy managers better prepare for this moving forward? Or should they simply view this past season as aberrant?

Rodgers missed one start over his final five seasons with the Green Bay Packers. Regardless of age, some level of durability was expected, and it was hardly different for Justin Herbert (finger), Joe Burrow (wrist) and Kirk Cousins (Achilles). This trio had missed a combined three games over the past two seasons. Cousins had missed two starts in eight years! Then came 2023, and this foursome combined to play 32 games.

To be clear, the strategy to avoid quarterbacks in the early rounds of standard (one-QB) fantasy drafts is more about excess supply versus demand, and this still holds true. There are more than 10 viable, fantasy starter-worthy quarterbacks, so load up early on typical flex-eligible options at running back and wide receiver, and then enjoy the quarterback depth later. Depth remains. Even after 2023, trying to guess which quarterbacks will get injured and miss significant time is foolish. Stuff happens. Wait on quarterbacks.

However, it does seem time to ditch the notion of avoiding quarterback depth for otherwise unremarkable running backs/wide receivers that may never play a key role for fantasy teams. Even then, there are no guarantees. Dak Prescott was a 12th-round choice in the final ESPN Fantasy preseason mock draft, as was Tua Tagovailoa. Jared Goff and Jordan Love were 16th-round selections. The Rodgers investor had earlier picked Burrow. Shrug emoji. Bad luck.

Still, fantasy managers must expect the unexpected, not only on draft day but during the hectic season. Leave your drafts with more than one quarterback, because this season showed us the value of having what you may have once believed was unnecessary depth. It was so necessary this past season. In addition, play the waiver wire in September and beyond for even more quarterback depth, whether you need it or not. Many fantasy managers who passed on Flacco may have lost playoff matchups precisely because of his stunning revival.

While many of us remain likely to ignore top quarterbacks in the opening rounds such as Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes, it seems paramount to leave drafts with multiple quarterbacks, just in case. Procure several safe, reliable starters, even if they are borderline QB1 options. Take a chance on a rookie, but it has to make sense. Covet opportunity -- see Baker Mayfield with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- along with upside.

Quarterback is the arguably the most important position in sports, and this was quite the hectic season for the position. Week 18 "resting shenanigans" aside, a precious few AFC quarterbacks made it through four months sans serious injury. Allen and likely league MVP Lamar Jackson thrived, Mahomes and Tagovailoa were a bit disappointing, and rookie C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Denver Broncos scapegoat Russell Wilson played most of the games, and they performed competently.

In the NFC, Prescott, Love and surprising MVP candidate Brock Purdy surprised, and Mayfield exceeded any reasonable expectations, finishing 10th in quarterback scoring. Dobbs played fantasy hero for the Arizona Cardinals for a while, then in early weeks with the Vikings, then hit the bench. The Vikings couldn't figure out what they were doing without Cousins. The Giants were just as clueless without Jones. The Atlanta Falcons acted clueless with two healthy options.

Perhaps quarterbacks will have better luck staying healthy in 2024, and fantasy managers will as well, but we all must prepare a bit differently moving forward.

Here are some other lessons learned from the 2023 season: