Drought warning in Pakistan due to low rainfall

Islamabad: The Meteorological Department has issued a warning of drought-like conditions in most parts of the country due to low rainfall.

According to a report, the National Drought Monitoring Center (NDMC) of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said in an advisory on Tuesday that there was not enough rainfall in the plains, due to which the drought situation increased.

The PMD said that this alert is a continuation of the Drought Advisory-1 issued on December 9.

From September 1, 2024 to January 15, 2025, Pakistan received 40 percent less rainfall than normal. Rainfall was 52 percent less than normal in Sindh, 45 percent in Balochistan, and 42 percent in Punjab.

Due to low rainfall, drought-like conditions have emerged in various parts of the country, including rain-dependent areas.

In Punjab, mild drought was observed in the Potohar region of Attock, Chakwal, Rawalpindi/Islamabad, Bhakkar, Layyah, Multan, Rajanpur, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, and DG Khan.

Similar conditions are observed in Sindh in Ghotki, Jacobabad, Larkana, Shaheed Benazirabad, Dadu, Padidan, Sukkur, Khairpur, Tharparkar, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, and Karachi.

In Balochistan, a similar situation is also being observed in Ormara, Kharan, Turbat, Kech, Panjgur, Awaran, Lasbela, Nokundi, Dalbandin, and adjacent areas.

The advisory said that the drought situation is likely to worsen further as no significant rainfall is expected in the rain-dependent areas of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan.

The PMD said that the situation is unlikely to improve, as the second half of the season is also expected to remain dry like the first half.

The forecast of above-normal temperatures may favor the transformation of mild drought into moderate drought, especially in the rain-dependent regions of the country.

The advisory said that the NDMC is continuously monitoring the meteorological conditions. In light of the low rainfall and rising temperatures, a pronounced drought is also expected to emerge in the coming months. The advisory urged the authorities to take preemptive measures in the drought-prone areas.

Meteorological report

The PMD also said that during January, February, and March 2025, adverse climatic indicators such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are expected to persist.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ENSO is a weather phenomenon that involves changes in water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern of warming and cooling, known as the ENSO cycle, affects rainfall in many parts of the world.

The PMD said that the transition of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from a ‘negative phase’ to a natural phase is also likely to continue during the season.

According to the forecast of the Meteorological Department, there is a possibility of slightly more than normal rainfall in central and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, most parts of Punjab, and adjacent areas of Azad Kashmir.

Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Hazara, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh, and eastern Balochistan are likely to receive near-normal rainfall, however, western Balochistan is expected to receive slightly less than normal rainfall during the season.

The PMD said that the second half of the season is expected to be relatively dry compared to the first half.

Water resources

The Meteorological Department said that slightly above-normal rainfall in the northern regions during the early part of the season may help replenish water resources and maintain adequate water supply. However, below-normal rainfall in southern Balochistan may put pressure on local water resources, which may affect irrigation and domestic water availability.

The advisory said that water availability for irrigation in the north may be sufficient, but close monitoring of water resource levels will be required to ensure adequate supply for the second half of the season.

The PMD has warned that warm temperatures and below-normal rainfall during the second half of the season may lead to an early start of the pollen season in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

Meanwhile, above-normal temperatures may trigger heat stress in vulnerable populations, especially in the southern regions, during March.