Monsoon may bring 50% more rain in Punjab: NDMA

Islamabad: A meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change, chaired by Senator Sherry Rehman, was held at the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) headquarters.

NDMA Chairman Lieutenant General Inam Haider Malik briefed the committee, stating that above-normal rainfall is expected during this year’s monsoon season. He said that the monsoon is expected to enter Pakistan around June 26 or 27, slightly earlier than usual, and will likely continue from July through September 15.

NDMA officials informed the committee that northern and eastern Punjab will experience heavy rainfall, and localized floods and surges in streams are likely due to glacier melt. Officials noted that a heatwave advisory had been issued six months ago, and areas like Rajanpur and Dera Ghazi Khan are likely to receive heavy rains and need special attention.

Temperature variations were also reported. Punjab is seeing a 2 to 3°C rise. Sindh is expected to have temperatures 2.5°C above normal. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) will have a 1.5°C increase.

The briefing further revealed that average rainfall in Punjab is 344mm, but this year it could reach 388mm, with northeastern Punjab seeing up to 50% more rainfall. Southern Punjab is also expected to get more rain.

In the Sulaiman Range, hill torrents are already being observed. Northern KP will receive less rainfall, while southern KP may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. In Chitral and glacial regions of KP, rainfall will be less than average.

Normally, KP receives 243mm of rainfall, but this year it may reach 300mm. Azad Kashmir is also expected to experience increased rainfall, while Balochistan will likely have less rainfall but higher temperatures.

The monsoon season will also see a higher risk of cloudbursts.

Senator Sherry Rehman remarked that the Indus Waters Treaty could also impact Pakistan. In response, NDMA Chairman Inam Haider Malik shared that a study on the treaty is underway. He noted that India is currently using less water than its capacity from the western rivers, and this year, the basin will have 35% less water, compared to a 31% deficit last year.